Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251225 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30     95.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  20.0  19.8  19.0  13.1  15.7  13.4  16.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  35.0  36.0  34.0  36.0  38.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         99.4  99.4  99.4  99.4 101.5 103.6 107.9 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  38.0  56.0  70.0  60.0  78.0  20.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        6.5%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.9%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%        8.9%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        2.9%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h       26.1%        3.9%       15.0%
 70kt / 48h       11.1%        2.8%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h       24.1%        8.4%       16.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 SH092026 251225 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30     95.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  20.0  19.8  19.0  13.1  15.7  13.4  16.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  43.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%