Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251225 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60     94.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  26.6  29.2  25.3  20.0  17.8  14.1  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  33.0  33.0  34.0  34.0  37.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  99.4  99.4  99.4 101.5 105.7 105.7  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  44.0  45.0  61.0   9.0   5.0  11.0  24.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  46.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.4%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.4%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%        1.6%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.1%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        3.7%        5.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 SH092026 251225 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60     94.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  26.6  29.2  25.3  20.0  17.8  14.1  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  46.0  44.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%