Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251226 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.50     93.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  25.7  27.4  23.8  21.4  18.0  23.3  21.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  33.0  34.0  34.0  36.0  38.0  40.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  94.4  96.5  96.5  98.6 102.9 100.7 102.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  23.0  29.0  -5.0  11.0 -21.0   4.0   7.0  U  U  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        2.1%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        7.7%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        3.6%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        3.1%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        2.6%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        7.6%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%        2.2%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.5%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        3.3%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 SH092026 251226 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.50     93.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  25.7  27.4  23.8  21.4  18.0  23.3  21.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%