Rapid Intensification Guidance SH092026 251226 06UTC Storm Located at : -11.90 92.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.90 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.5 30.5 23.4 18.9 13.2 11.8 12.4 16.8 U N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 41.0 43.0 45.0 40.0 U U U U N N N N Potential [kt] 98.6 98.6 100.7 100.7 102.9 102.9 105.1 102.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 89.0 72.0 43.0 33.0 57.0 58.0 57.0 52.0 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 55.0 57.0 54.0 56.0 52.0 47.0 47.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 2.9% 7.7% 5.3% 30kt / 24h 2.2% 3.3% 2.8% 35kt / 24h 2.2% 2.9% 2.5% 40kt / 24h 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 45kt / 36h 3.6% 8.4% 6.0% 55kt / 36h 1.5% 2.3% 1.9% 55kt / 48h 19.3% 5.3% 12.3% 70kt / 48h 6.9% 2.7% 4.8% 65kt / 72h 26.4% 9.0% 17.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.74 SH092026 251226 06UTC Storm Located at : -11.90 92.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.5 30.5 23.4 18.9 13.2 11.8 12.4 16.8 N N N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 55.0 57.0 54.0 56.0 52.0 47.0 47.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%