Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251226 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  25.1  17.1  15.2   7.7  11.3  15.0  16.0  U  N  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  37.0  36.0  38.0  42.0  44.0  40.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         93.6  95.7  95.7  95.7  97.9 100.1  97.9 100.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  56.0  47.0  33.0  47.0  64.0  52.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        2.1%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%       14.2%       11.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        7.3%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%        6.8%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%        6.3%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h       10.7%       17.2%       13.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.6%        6.3%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h       30.9%        9.8%       20.4%
 70kt / 48h       14.2%        5.7%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h       26.1%       11.8%       18.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 SH092026 251226 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  25.1  17.1  15.2   7.7  11.3  15.0  16.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%