Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251226 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.80     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  20.5  19.6  21.2  20.7  24.1  16.1  15.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  43.0  45.0  40.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         88.6  90.7  90.7  90.7  92.9  90.7  92.9  88.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   7.0 -18.0 -19.0  14.0  -9.0 -12.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        3.5%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       11.7%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%        6.4%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.6%        5.8%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%        5.7%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%        8.1%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%        2.5%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%        2.7%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.2%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        2.7%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 SH092026 251226 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.80     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  20.5  19.6  21.2  20.7  24.1  16.1  15.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%