Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251227 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.80     90.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  23.0  20.8  21.1  21.1  18.8  14.8  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  37.0  40.0  39.0  42.0  42.0  36.0  33.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.9  92.9  90.7  92.9  95.1  92.9  95.1  88.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0   4.0   6.0  -8.0 -10.0  -3.0  -6.0 -14.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  56.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        3.0%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       11.7%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        6.5%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%        5.9%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%        5.5%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        6.8%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        2.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        3.3%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        1.1%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        2.7%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 SH092026 251227 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.80     90.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  23.0  20.8  21.1  21.1  18.8  14.8  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  56.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%