Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251227 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     89.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  20.6  19.7  21.5  20.8  17.9  19.6  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  45.0  40.0  35.0  26.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.7  90.7  92.9  95.1  92.9  92.9  95.1  88.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   6.0  -8.0   4.0  27.0  -9.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        4.0%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%       15.7%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.2%        9.7%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%        9.1%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%        8.0%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%        9.6%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        3.1%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%        4.5%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.6%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        3.2%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 SH092026 251227 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     89.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  20.6  19.7  21.5  20.8  17.9  19.6  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%