Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251227 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00     88.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.4  20.4  21.7  17.7  13.2  13.8  21.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  41.0  44.0  44.0  41.0  35.0  27.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.7  92.9  95.1  95.1  92.9  95.1  88.6  88.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   6.0  21.0  -8.0  -1.0  11.0 -33.0 -21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  55.0  51.0  47.0  50.0  50.0  46.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        2.6%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       10.8%        7.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        6.3%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%        5.7%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%        5.3%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%        6.4%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        2.0%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%        4.0%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        1.4%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        2.7%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 SH092026 251227 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00     88.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.4  20.4  21.7  17.7  13.2  13.8  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  55.0  51.0  47.0  50.0  50.0  46.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%