Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251227 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.0  22.2  21.6  15.5  15.2  16.6  25.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  36.0  30.0  21.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.9  90.1  90.1  87.9  87.9  83.6  83.6  75.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  22.0   3.0  17.0   9.0   2.0 -19.0 -13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.9%        7.0%        9.4%
 25kt / 24h       17.1%       20.6%       18.8%
 30kt / 24h       17.1%       13.2%       15.1%
 35kt / 24h       17.1%       13.1%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h       17.1%       12.7%       14.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%       12.8%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.5%        4.4%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.2%        5.9%        9.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        2.3%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        2.7%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 SH092026 251227 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.0  22.2  21.6  15.5  15.2  16.6  25.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  41.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%