Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251228 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30     86.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.2  18.0  16.2  15.7  15.9  23.6  27.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  43.0  45.0  41.0  36.0  29.0  26.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.1  90.1  87.9  87.9  90.1  83.6  83.6  83.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  18.0   0.0   9.0  21.0 -34.0 -29.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  56.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  -3.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%        7.7%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       13.1%       24.8%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h       13.1%       18.4%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h       13.1%       18.3%       15.7%
 40kt / 24h       13.1%       17.0%       15.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       15.0%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%        5.7%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h       12.6%        7.4%       10.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        2.5%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        2.6%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 SH092026 251228 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30     86.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.2  18.0  16.2  15.7  15.9  23.6  27.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  56.0  52.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  -3.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%