Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251228 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10     84.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  20.7  19.8  17.8  12.7  17.2  26.1  25.3  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  41.0  37.0  36.0  28.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.9  77.9  77.9  73.6  73.6  73.6  73.6  67.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   9.0  22.0  13.0  20.0  10.0   5.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -0.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%        8.8%       10.9%
 25kt / 24h       14.6%       22.4%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%       18.9%       15.8%
 35kt / 24h       11.2%       18.9%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h       11.2%       17.4%       14.3%
 45kt / 36h       11.2%        9.7%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%        3.5%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.2%        5.4%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 SH092026 251228 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10     84.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  20.7  19.8  17.8  12.7  17.2  26.1  25.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -0.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%