Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251228 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     83.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  16.0  10.9  10.4  17.0  20.0  20.8  19.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  37.0  36.0  35.0  26.0  27.0  22.0  21.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.9  72.9  75.1  68.6  70.7  68.6  68.6  62.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   0.0  15.0  21.0  -6.0   8.0  12.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  49.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.4%       10.9%       14.6%
 25kt / 24h       28.0%       30.8%       29.4%
 30kt / 24h       28.0%       27.2%       27.6%
 35kt / 24h       28.0%       27.2%       27.6%
 40kt / 24h       28.0%       26.9%       27.4%
 45kt / 36h       22.1%       15.1%       18.6%
 55kt / 36h        9.6%        6.4%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h       12.7%        5.2%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 SH092026 251228 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     83.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  16.0  10.9  10.4  17.0  20.0  20.8  19.3  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  49.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%