Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251229 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.50     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  15.1  16.9  13.4  19.8  28.0  30.7  33.7  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  36.0  36.0  29.0  27.0  22.0  23.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.1  50.1  43.6  43.6  43.6  43.6  37.4  39.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   7.0  21.0   1.0  34.0   2.0  47.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  46.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.0%       14.0%       30.5%
 25kt / 24h       33.9%       18.4%       26.1%
 30kt / 24h       33.9%       14.8%       24.3%
 35kt / 24h       33.9%       14.5%       24.2%
 40kt / 24h       33.9%       11.8%       22.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 SH092026 251229 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.50     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  15.1  16.9  13.4  19.8  28.0  30.7  33.7  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  46.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%