Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251229 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.9  13.9  16.6  23.2  30.3  36.0  31.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  34.0  26.0  28.0  23.0  21.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.1  33.6  33.6  35.7  33.6  27.4  29.4  29.4  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  21.0   1.0   4.0  12.0  31.0  44.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.7%        8.6%       22.1%
 25kt / 24h       12.5%        8.8%       10.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.5%        6.5%        9.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 SH092026 251229 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.9  13.9  16.6  23.2  30.3  36.0  31.1  U  N  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%