Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251230 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  24.8  24.2  23.8  25.2  28.0  23.8  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  27.0  23.0  23.0  20.0  18.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.7  40.7  40.7  40.7  34.4  28.5  28.5  34.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  40.0  44.0  46.0  37.0  32.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  51.0  55.0  56.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   3.0   4.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 SH092026 251230 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  24.8  24.2  23.8  25.2  28.0  23.8  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  51.0  55.0  56.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   3.0   4.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.1%        4.5%