Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251230 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     77.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  26.3  26.3  26.5  27.1  25.5  21.2  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  28.0  23.0  23.0  21.0  19.0  20.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.7  30.7  30.7  22.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  32.0  29.0  36.0  36.0  22.0  38.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  48.0  55.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        0.9%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 SH092026 251230 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     77.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  26.3  26.3  26.5  27.1  25.5  21.2  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  48.0  55.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       11.3%        5.7%