Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251230 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  27.9  25.7  23.8  26.4  23.2  20.3  22.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  23.0  19.0  17.0  14.0  17.0  20.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.7  22.4  22.4  24.4  18.5  18.5  24.4  24.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  17.0  23.0  31.0  16.0  21.0  21.0  30.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  53.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%        0.0%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 SH092026 251230 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  27.9  25.7  23.8  26.4  23.2  20.3  22.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  53.0  56.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       10.9%        5.4%