Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251231 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00     73.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.7  34.6  37.8  37.8  31.1  30.8  17.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  21.0  21.0  19.0  21.0  21.0  25.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.4  39.4  39.4  39.4  39.4  41.5  41.5  45.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  29.0  25.0 -10.0   8.0   9.0   9.0   5.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  52.0  55.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 SH092026 251231 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00     73.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.7  34.6  37.8  37.8  31.1  30.8  17.1  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  52.0  55.0  57.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       20.3%       10.1%