Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  36.8  33.0  27.1  22.9  10.8  13.9  10.9  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0  21.0  21.0  18.0  18.0  21.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.5  70.5  70.5  70.5  70.5  70.5  70.5  72.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  -9.0  13.0  -1.0   8.0   2.0  12.0 -39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  49.0  51.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  55.0  56.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 SH092026 260101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.