Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     68.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  34.0  27.1  22.9  23.8  12.2  12.7  16.9  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  25.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.5  86.5  86.5  86.5  86.5  86.5  84.4  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0  13.0  -1.0   4.0  21.0  10.0  -6.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  55.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  52.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 SH092026 260101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     68.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  34.0  27.1  22.9  23.8  12.2  12.7  16.9  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  55.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  52.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%