Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80     67.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  22.1  17.9  12.0  13.4  14.2  17.2  18.7  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  25.0  26.0  27.0  27.0  26.0  29.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6 111.5 111.5 111.5 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  22.0   3.0   0.0  23.0 -37.0   4.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        1.1%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%        2.3%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH092026 260102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80     67.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  22.1  17.9  12.0  13.4  14.2  17.2  18.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%