Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     66.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  18.6  12.0  11.3  13.2  15.2  14.6  23.4  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  28.0  27.0  27.0  24.0  28.0  31.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6 111.5 107.4 109.4 111.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   3.0   1.0  13.0  -5.0 -27.0   9.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        6.5%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%        2.4%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        1.6%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%        4.6%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH092026 260102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     66.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  18.6  12.0  11.3  13.2  15.2  14.6  23.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%