Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.8  13.6  12.1  17.4  16.5  24.5  19.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  31.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  35.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 117.9 113.6 113.6 111.5 113.6 113.6 117.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0   3.0  14.0 -26.0 -17.0  -3.0   7.0  22.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  46.0  49.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  63.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        9.6%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.4%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.5%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.5%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       11.9%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        4.6%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h       19.6%        4.5%       12.0%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%        3.5%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        9.4%        6.9%        8.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 SH092026 260103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.8  13.6  12.1  17.4  16.5  24.5  19.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  46.0  49.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  63.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%