Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70     64.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.6  11.9  15.6  14.3  22.7  20.5  24.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  32.0  29.0  30.0  31.0  32.0  37.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 113.6 113.6 111.5 111.5 111.5 115.7 117.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  14.0 -26.0 -20.0   0.0   6.0  -6.0  22.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  46.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  53.0  64.0  63.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        8.1%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        2.5%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        2.5%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       11.2%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        3.7%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h       17.7%        3.1%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.0%        2.5%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%        5.6%        7.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 SH092026 260103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70     64.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.6  11.9  15.6  14.3  22.7  20.5  24.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  46.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  53.0  64.0  63.0  F VF  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%