Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     63.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  16.1  15.4  15.5  22.4  17.8  24.3  26.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  30.0  31.0  32.0  34.0  37.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        118.6 116.5 116.5 116.5 118.6 120.7 122.9 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -33.0 -42.0 -19.0  11.0  42.0  32.0  22.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  48.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0  -0.0   1.0   2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.3%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.1%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.0%        2.8%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        2.2%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%        6.3%        8.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 SH092026 260103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     63.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  16.1  15.4  15.5  22.4  17.8  24.3  26.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  48.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0  -0.0   1.0   2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%