Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  18.8  18.3  19.1  26.7  26.4  26.7  30.6  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  29.0  32.0  33.0  36.0  39.0  39.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 116.5 118.6 120.7 120.7 122.9 127.3 127.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0 -16.0 -16.0  -6.0  -6.0  11.0  38.0  44.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  48.0  52.0  56.0  64.0  66.0  66.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        9.1%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       13.3%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        4.9%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%        3.0%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        2.7%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        6.4%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH092026 260104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  18.8  18.3  19.1  26.7  26.4  26.7  30.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  48.0  52.0  56.0  64.0  66.0  66.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%