Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     53.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  21.4  19.2  24.8  21.5  16.5  30.2  30.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  39.0  38.0  35.0   9.0  62.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 125.1 127.3 125.1 129.6 135.0 127.3 127.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  29.0  51.0  30.0  20.0  24.0  29.0  29.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   4.0   9.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        7.5%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       10.6%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.3%        5.2%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        3.4%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%        8.4%        7.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 SH092026 260106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     53.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  21.4  19.2  24.8  21.5  16.5  30.2  30.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   4.0   9.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%