Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 260107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     49.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  18.8  20.4  19.9  31.3  47.4  53.0  75.2  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0   9.0   3.0  12.3  31.0  10.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        137.9 140.1 142.3 135.7 147.0 123.5 104.6  95.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  19.0  25.0  33.0  70.0 109.0 141.0 100.0  N  U  U  N  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0   8.0  -8.0  -7.0  -7.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.4%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        1.4%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 SH092026 260107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     49.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  18.8  20.4  19.9  31.3  47.4  53.0  75.2  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0   8.0  -8.0  -7.0  -7.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%