Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 251228 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  22.7  21.4  20.2  33.6  36.0  41.3  37.2  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  31.0  11.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  40.0  45.0  57.0  22.0  20.0  10.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   5.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0   4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.0%        7.5%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       23.1%       41.5%       32.3%
 30kt / 24h       15.6%       25.3%       20.5%
 35kt / 24h       11.5%       25.3%       18.4%
 40kt / 24h       11.5%       25.3%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       17.0%       36.4%       26.7%
 55kt / 36h       10.6%       17.7%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       23.2%       13.4%       18.3%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%        7.7%        8.3%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%        8.0%        7.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 SH102026 251228 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  22.7  21.4  20.2  33.6  36.0  41.3  37.2  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   5.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0   4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%