Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 251229 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  20.1  28.9  31.7  37.9  40.1  32.5  32.4  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  41.0  65.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  72.0  61.0  41.0  45.0  28.0  21.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.4%       29.0%       34.2%
 25kt / 24h       52.0%       62.1%       57.1%
 30kt / 24h       45.2%       53.5%       49.4%
 35kt / 24h       45.2%       53.5%       49.4%
 40kt / 24h       45.2%       53.5%       49.4%
 45kt / 36h       28.2%       39.7%       33.9%
 55kt / 36h       15.8%       19.4%       17.6%
 55kt / 48h       15.3%       12.6%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        5.8%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%        7.9%        7.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 SH102026 251229 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  20.1  28.9  31.7  37.9  40.1  32.5  32.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%