Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 251229 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  27.4  32.6  35.2  34.9  31.9  32.6  23.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  17.0  12.0  45.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  33.0  34.0  51.0  30.0  15.0   9.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  55.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -3.0   2.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.2%       26.0%       34.1%
 25kt / 24h       47.1%       53.7%       50.4%
 30kt / 24h       36.9%       44.6%       40.8%
 35kt / 24h       33.2%       44.6%       38.9%
 40kt / 24h       33.2%       44.6%       38.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.0%       29.5%       25.8%
 55kt / 36h       10.9%       12.8%       11.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%       10.0%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        3.7%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        5.2%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 SH102026 251229 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  27.4  32.6  35.2  34.9  31.9  32.6  23.7  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  55.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -3.0   2.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%