Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 251229 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  34.3  41.1  42.8  37.4  32.8  28.7  34.9  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  67.0  73.0  41.0  33.0  18.0  24.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  40.0  54.0  45.0  24.0  20.0  39.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.2%        7.6%       26.9%
 25kt / 24h       28.1%       11.3%       19.7%
 30kt / 24h       28.1%        5.9%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h       28.1%        5.9%       17.0%
 40kt / 24h       28.1%        5.9%       17.0%
 45kt / 36h       16.6%        3.0%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        0.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 SH102026 251229 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  34.3  41.1  42.8  37.4  32.8  28.7  34.9  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%