Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 251230 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  36.6  36.5  37.4  29.8  27.1  25.5  33.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  70.0  41.0  12.0  69.0  24.0  23.0  54.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  49.0  52.0  39.0  23.0  23.0  47.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.0%        7.0%       21.0%
 25kt / 24h       19.6%       12.0%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h       19.6%        6.7%       13.2%
 35kt / 24h       19.6%        6.7%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h       19.6%        6.6%       13.1%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%        4.2%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        1.1%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        1.1%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.74

 SH102026 251230 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  36.6  36.5  37.4  29.8  27.1  25.5  33.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%