Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 251230 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  36.8  37.4  36.7  38.0  26.0  29.9  29.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  11.0  64.0  51.0  19.5  22.0  53.0  54.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  47.0  27.0  26.0  14.0  28.0  11.0  17.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        1.4%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        4.2%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        2.1%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        2.0%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        1.5%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        0.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 SH102026 251230 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  36.8  37.4  36.7  38.0  26.0  29.9  29.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%