Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 251230 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    123.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  35.1  31.9  33.0  29.2  23.1  31.1  40.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  44.0  17.0  22.0  23.0  54.0  23.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  26.0  24.0  20.0  10.0  25.0  10.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  64.0  64.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 SH102026 251230 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    123.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  35.1  31.9  33.0  29.2  23.1  31.1  40.4  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  64.0  64.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%