Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 251231 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  33.9  36.8  34.3  28.5  27.0  28.5  28.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.8  23.7  23.5  23.3  23.0  54.0  54.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -20.0 -13.0  25.0  31.0  13.0  24.0  33.0  U VU  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  66.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        0.3%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 SH102026 251231 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  33.9  36.8  34.3  28.5  27.0  28.5  28.7  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  66.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%