Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 251231 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  36.3  33.7  26.0  29.0  27.2  24.8  28.1  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  54.0  54.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -13.0  25.0  41.0  17.0  11.0  19.0  44.0 VU  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  74.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        0.8%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.04

 SH102026 251231 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  36.3  33.7  26.0  29.0  27.2  24.8  28.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  74.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%