Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102026 260101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    128.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  24.3  26.5  27.2  29.9  41.3  52.3  57.4  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 128.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -15.0   4.0  -3.0  20.0  11.0 -16.0 -31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  62.0  56.0  60.0  53.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -6.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.6%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.5%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.20

 SH102026 260101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    128.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  24.3  26.5  27.2  29.9  41.3  52.3  57.4  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  62.0  56.0  60.0  53.0  F  N  F  F  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -6.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%