Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112026 260101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  22.3  29.1  27.4  30.3  29.3  36.7  34.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  36.0  35.0  32.0  29.0  27.0  22.0  15.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 129.3 120.1 122.3 117.9 113.6 109.4 103.5  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  43.0  35.0  39.0  34.0  29.0  27.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  48.0  44.0  46.0  42.0  37.0  34.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       14.9%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.2%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        5.5%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        4.9%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       12.0%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.6%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h       10.6%        3.3%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        1.9%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        2.9%        4.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 SH112026 260101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  22.3  29.1  27.4  30.3  29.3  36.7  34.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  48.0  44.0  46.0  42.0  37.0  34.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -0.0   2.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%