Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112026 260101 06UTC Storm Located at : -13.10 108.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 76.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 28.5 29.9 28.0 32.4 40.6 40.8 42.1 F N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 33.0 30.0 27.0 28.0 25.0 19.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.6 110.1 112.3 103.6 103.6 99.4 97.4 93.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 11.0 0.0 -15.0 8.0 0.0 28.0 35.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 43.0 41.0 38.0 34.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -5.0 N F N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% 25kt / 24h 9.1% 21.7% 15.4% 30kt / 24h 5.7% 11.9% 8.8% 35kt / 24h 3.6% 11.9% 7.8% 40kt / 24h 3.6% 10.3% 7.0% 45kt / 36h 3.3% 17.2% 10.3% 55kt / 36h 1.9% 6.9% 4.4% 55kt / 48h 3.4% 2.3% 2.9% 70kt / 48h 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.04 SH112026 260101 06UTC Storm Located at : -13.10 108.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 76.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 28.5 29.9 28.0 32.4 40.6 40.8 42.1 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 43.0 41.0 38.0 34.0 VF F VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -5.0 N U N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%