Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112026 260102 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.30 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 27.6 35.4 41.5 45.8 39.9 38.4 52.7 N N U VU VU U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 11.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.4 104.4 104.4 102.4 98.5 94.8 79.6 81.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 -7.0 8.0 -18.0 -27.0 24.0 39.0 57.0 U U U U VU U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 44.0 41.0 42.0 33.0 30.0 39.0 48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -3.0 -19.0 -6.0 N N N F F N VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 SH112026 260102 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.30 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.