Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112026 260102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  34.9  41.4  39.0  40.8  35.8  49.2  44.9  N  U VU  U VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  16.0  13.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.8  94.8  91.2  91.2  87.7  82.7  79.6  82.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0   8.0 -18.0  -4.0  39.0  64.0  44.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  45.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -6.0  -8.0  -4.0 -11.0 -11.0  -3.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.92

 SH112026 260102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.