Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112026 260102 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.80 108.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 35.0 38.1 39.2 38.5 47.6 38.6 43.1 U U U U U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.2 99.4 97.7 94.3 89.6 91.1 94.3 104.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 0.0 14.0 29.0 97.0 26.0 35.0 -3.0 U U U N F U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 35.0 34.0 32.0 36.0 34.0 41.0 49.0 50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -4.0 -8.0 -10.0 -0.0 -6.0 N F F F F F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.66 SH112026 260102 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.80 108.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.