Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112026 260103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  37.6  38.3  37.4  40.3  39.7  42.6  40.5  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 101.0  99.3  97.7  94.6  97.7 106.2 119.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  15.0  36.0  13.0  32.0  68.0  65.0  34.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  35.0  40.0  39.0  44.0  52.0  55.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0 -11.0  -3.0  -1.0   2.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.54

 SH112026 260103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.