Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112026 260103 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.80 103.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.20 F TC SIZE [%] 40.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 35.0 37.4 39.0 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.1 94.6 94.6 102.7 106.2 106.2 106.2 106.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 43.0 13.0 33.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 N N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 39.0 47.0 51.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 VU VU VU U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -9.0 -8.0 -5.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 F F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.28 SH112026 260103 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.80 103.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.