Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112026 260104 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 100.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 39.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.9 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 93.6 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 VF F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.00 SH112026 260104 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 100.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.