Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122026 260106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70     94.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.7  45.3  43.4  44.6  49.3  47.4  33.9  32.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.0  37.7  32.7  32.7  31.1  37.7  39.4  41.2  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  15.0  -9.0 -21.0  -4.0  -9.0   1.0  64.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  44.0  39.0  44.0  51.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -19.0 -13.0 -11.0  -6.0  -4.0  -8.0 -13.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        1.4%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.50

 SH122026 260106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70     94.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.