Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122026 260107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     92.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.9  60.6  58.4  52.1  34.9  35.3  40.4  46.2 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.6  59.6  61.1  61.1  62.7  71.2  64.3  64.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  16.0 -47.0 -21.0  24.0  21.0  41.0  49.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  45.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  47.0  57.0  61.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -12.0  -3.0  -7.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  -9.0 VF  F  N  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.18

 SH122026 260107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     92.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.