Rapid Intensification Guidance SH122026 260107 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.60 91.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.9 50.7 43.3 38.9 33.7 34.7 41.8 27.4 VU VU VU U U U VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.1 71.1 71.1 72.7 81.2 81.2 81.2 83.0 U U U U N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 -27.0 -19.0 0.0 36.0 24.0 65.0 71.0 U VU U U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 40.0 37.0 40.0 47.0 62.0 61.0 62.0 VU VU VU VU VU N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -6.0 -2.0 -2.0 -5.0 -6.0 -14.0 1.0 F F N N F F VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 SH122026 260107 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.60 91.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.